Can Israel's Military Strategy Threaten the US-Iran Peace Agreement?
Will Israel's reckless behavior derail the US-Iran peace deal?
The southern part of Lebanon is now in ruins due to the Israeli attack. A man carries two children through it. Photo: AFP
Although Iran-US signed a memorandum of understanding, the scheduled peace talks have not started. The two countries have not announced the next date. Such a setback at the beginning has created uncertainty around the future of the talks. Israel has made the situation more complicated.
The Israeli forces have increased the atrocities in Lebanon, ignoring the memorandum of understanding. They have killed at least 47 people in the country in a single day. Israel has attacked Lebanon even after announcing a ceasefire with Hezbollah on Friday.
Analysts had been talking about the fear that Israel would want to sabotage the agreement between Tehran and Washington. The hard-line Zionist leaders of the Israeli government want the attacks on Lebanon to continue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also wants to take advantage of the upcoming October elections. That is why Israel is not agreeing to stop the attacks despite pressure from its close ally, the United States.
Israel's behavior has thrown Iran-US talks into uncertainty. One of the conditions of the memorandum of understanding signed between the two countries last Wednesday is that Israel will stop attacking Lebanon. Despite this, a massive Israeli attack took place in Lebanon on Friday. In response, Iran warned that Israel will suffer the consequences. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that it is the responsibility of the United States to stop the attacks on Lebanon.
Amidst the concerns about the attack on Lebanon, positive news is that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing in accordance with the Tehran-Washington agreement. According to data from AXS Marine, a shipping monitoring company, 25 ships have passed through this waterway since Thursday. This is the highest number since April 18. Fuel prices were also on the decline that day.
However, American journalist and political analyst Raina Khalil believes that the future of the Iran-US agreement depends on Israel. She said, if Israel continues to attack, in Iran's view, it will be a violation of the memorandum of understanding. Now the future of this agreement will largely depend on whether the United States can force Israel to comply with the ceasefire or not.
US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pjeshkian signed the memorandum of understanding on Wednesday. After that, representatives of the two countries were supposed to meet for talks at the Bürgenstock resort from Friday to reach a final agreement. But on Thursday, the White House announced that US Vice President JD Vance would not be going to Switzerland. After this announcement, the Swiss Foreign Ministry also issued a statement saying that there would be no talks on Friday. However, they would be ready for talks. And Iran announced the postponement of the talks on Friday. According to them, plans are underway to meet in a few days.
According to the memorandum of understanding, the two countries are supposed to hold talks within 60 days. The White House, which did not give the reason behind the delay of the first day of talks, said in a statement that JD Vance and the US representatives were ready to leave the United States as soon as the plan for the talks was finalized. But organizing such talks is not an easy task. The next steps will be announced.
Meanwhile, a BBC report said that a Hezbollah-affiliated media outlet reported that the Iran-US talks were suspended due to Israel's attack on Lebanon.
After the Iran-Iraq war began on February 28, Israel began attacking Lebanon on March 2. Then on April 8, Iran and the US signed a ceasefire and later there were several Lebanon-Israel ceasefires. However, Israel did not stop attacking and occupying Lebanon. Even after the Tehran-Washington agreement, Israel said that it would not leave the occupied territories in Lebanon and that the attacks would continue.
It is also important for Trump to stop the war. The US midterm elections are in November. This war has become very unpopular in the US. Trump wants to stop the war before the elections and improve his image by claiming victory.
The reflection of that statement from Israel was seen on Friday. The Lebanese Ministry of Health said that from Thursday night to Friday afternoon, at least 47 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes in the southern part of the country and the Bekaa Valley. 97 were injured.
The most serious attack on the day took place in the Haruf area. Nine people, including three women, were killed there. In addition, six people were killed in the Al-Duair area, seven in Haboushe, three in Arab Salim and three in Tal Abyad. Casualties were also reported in the Al-Sharqiyah, Kafarsir, Al-Qatrani, Nabatieh, Deir al-Zahrani, Kafar Rumman, and Al-Abbasiya areas.
Amid such attacks, Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a new ceasefire starting at 4 p.m. local time on Friday, a U.S. official told Reuters. Despite the ceasefire announcement, Israel carried out at least 12 attacks in the 45 minutes until 5 p.m. Although the Israeli military confirmed the ceasefire.
Four Israeli soldiers were also killed in fighting with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on the same day. After the incident, Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gavir said that Lebanon would be "burned."
'Genocidal group a threat to humanity'
Iranian leaders have expressed renewed anger after Friday's attacks in Lebanon and threats from Israeli ministers. Abbas Araghchi said after Ben-Gavir's threat to burn Lebanon, this genocidal group is a threat to humanity.
And Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai said that Israel's belligerence would have "serious" consequences.
